Britain goes to the Pacific | Dominic Lawson
Britain’s Bet On the Future
With the release of the new Integrated Review of foreign policy, the British government’s outlining of its strategic goals and foreign policy objectives, one area has received a special mention and focus, Asia.
The review outlines a renewed focus from London to enhance British foreign policy objectives in the ‘Indo-Pacific’ region. In doing so, the UK will pivot hard to a region which has not been a traditional area of British foreign policy since the disintegration of the empire. This tilt is coming at just the right time. As many of us will be aware, the rising geopolitical importance of Asia can no longer be ignored by policy makers
This is only the latest announcement by the British foreign policy establishment which shows the UK’s renewed focus on the region. Prior to this, we have had the deployment of a vital British military asset in the Pacific theatre.
The stationing of the Queen Elizabeth carrier vessel in the Pacific waters, which I’m personally doubtful about, is a serious symbolic moment in our relations with the countries of the region. And this year, we gained word that the UK has begun the formal process of entry into the Comprehensive and Progessive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).
This is a free trade deal which spans three continents and encompasses some of the fastest growing economies in the world, with 13% of global GDP and 500 million customers. While some would argue correctly that this is slightly smaller than the European Union in economic terms, it has several advantages
The countries within are reluctant to surrender their national sovereignty or push for political alignment. It’s also composed of countries which are projected to experience greater and greater growth in the coming decades, whereas Europe is already losing its share of the global economy. Sure, our current trade with this collection of countries is dwarfed by our current trade with Germany, and the benefit from the deal will take some years to manifest, but this is an investment which will pay dividends far into the future.
British policy makers know this. Europe is the past, a wonderful continent but one with a shrinking population and downwardly mobile middle class. Britain’s future will be found in Asia, with its sprawling megacities and booming middle classes. The Asia Pacific contains 90% of the world’s busiest trade ports, vital for an island economy which relies on free trade.
It is host to several of our key allies and Commonwealth partners, such as Australia and Canada, who depend upon regional trade to power their economies and societies. And, as I will show, it contains other countries with whom the UK could form natural and long lasting alliances.
Distant Friendships
Britain’s re-entry and pivot eastwards will allow London to reaffirm relations with nations which we have neglected for years, just as these countries are securing their share of the global order and economy.
The most obvious ally, and one which British elites have identified as such, is Japan.
Being the de-facto leader of our new trade alliance, Tokyo gave London a diplomatic boost by their firm support of us joining.
Likely this is because Japanese policy-makers realise that we are natural allies. As two island-nations situated at either end of the world-island, we have both played similar roles as regional pillars of the Washington-led world order. Being two small island nations who lack natural resources, we both have a key interest in the maintenance of open sea-lanes. This vital part of both nations' grand strategies has meant we have a deep history of military cooperation.
The original Anglo-Japanese pact was signed in 1902, with the aim of disrupting Russian expansionism in the Pacific and was largely successful in achieving that. These days, another land power has arisen to satisfy her imperial ambitions and a revival of British and Japanese relations serves Tokyo’s interests and could net us a key trading partner and military ally.
In 2018, the UK became the second Western nation after the United States to train soldiers on Japanese soil. At present, Tokyo is forbidden from commanding a standing army with expeditionary potential as an US-sanctioned punishment for her previous empire building. This is coming to an end and is bound to change soon, especially as China continues her ascent.
We are already the second largest source of weaponry and military equipment to the Japanese self-defence force and a fully capable Japanese military would probably be one of our greatest in-field allies and a potent customer base for British technology companies and research agreements.
Alongside military cooperation, Japan will form a key backbone in the regional intelligence apparatus with it’s likely joining of the vital Five Eyes organisation.
The Vietnamese have repeatedly shown a resilience and determination to assert their interests against the encroach of a powerful neighbour.
While Japan is the undoubted leader of the Asian Bloc, another country with whom we have intersecting interests is Vietnam.
Because our own country has little history with the Vietnamese, we tend to forget about it yet it’s a country which has demonstrated impressive economic and societal development in the previous decades.
Hanoi’s near-perfect handling of the pandemic has demonstrated that a technologically inferior and economically limited state can achieve impressive results, and it looks set to be one of the few nations who will emerge from the pandemic with mostly uninterrupted growth.
Being a tiny country and economy neighbouring the world fastest growing superpower, one would think that Vietnam would find itself ‘findlandised’ and made into a supplicant to her powerful neighbour.
Instead, Hanoi has shown considerable backbone and willingness to enforce her interests against her overbearing neighbour. The Vietnamese are unsentimental and willing to form alliances and relations with countries who have previously wronged them, mainly the US and Japan.
Unbeknownst to many, Hanoi already plays a major role in regional security as a significant contributor of ground intelligence to Australia.
Finally, there is the island-nation of Taiwan. The Republic of China, to use it’s official name, is strategically important for the Western-aligned Asian bloc because of its central location in the First Island Chain which act as natural baes from which to protect the sea-lanes of the South China Sea. The trade routes which run through this area are vital to British trade as they carry an estimated 12% of the UK’s trade seaborne trade, a figure which is only set to increase. In the event of growing tension with Beijing, it is not inconceivable that China will use her navy to blockade the route as a means of pressuring rivals.
Taiwan is also vital because of its dominance of semiconductor production, something which the world’s advanced economies depend upon and which are already in short supply.
However, it would be wise for London to maintain some degree of diplomatic distance from Taiwan. China views the Republic as a breakaway province and the possibility of a Chinese invasion of the island is growing by the year. It is not in Britain’s national interest to involve itself in the squabbles of countries on the other side of the world, especially against a rising hegemon with the escalatory advantage of geographic proximity.
In the event of a Chinese blockade, or even invasion, the rest of the West would likely not have the stomach to take them on and the responsibility would likely fall to Japan and the other regional powers. No doubt Tawainese policy makers are aware of this, and if the UK were to commit to any form of defence of the island, we risk merely being a tool for Taipei to effect Chinese calculations regarding the island.
Regarding Taipei, British policymakers need to balance access to Tawainese technology (while working on developing our own capabilities) while giving no commitments to the independence of the island-nation. It sounds mercenary and unsentimental but that is the nature of geopolitics and the first priority of British foreign policy must be to pursue the interests of this country, and not the interests of another.
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